It feels strange to say it, but in a tough economy, there is opportunity. And right now, if you are looking to buy a luxury watch, this could actually be one of the best windows you have seen in a long time.
The reason is simple. Business is tough across the board. Retailers have rent to pay, staff to pay, and bills that do not go away just because the market is soft. Unlike consumers, who can sit back and wait for conditions to improve, retailers and brands are on the hook every single month. They cannot shut up shop and wait it out. They have to move stock.
That means discounts on watches that previously would have been completely untouchable. Watches where, until very recently, there was no chance of negotiating even a cent off the price.
The word on the street is that some Australian luxury retailers are now more ‘flexible’. If you find the right person, at the right boutique, and you are not chasing one of the ultra-high-demand pieces, you have a pretty decent chance of securing a discount.
They’re not giving them away but we’re are talking ten percent. Maybe a bit more.
Of course, the brands will not say this publicly. They will tell you everything is fine. That the waitlists are still long. That demand remains strong. But behind closed doors, it is a very different story for many of them.
Globally the outlook on luxury is soft. We have war in the middle-east and locally ‘luxury’ retailers like Cettire which have always been a barometer on appetite for luxury which now seem to be on the ropes. Hell, I used to shop like a crackhead on Mr Porter, these days it doesnt even get a look in.
There are a few exceptions. Some brands are still performing.
Rolls-Royce, for instance, bizarrely up 75% year to date in Australia for sales. In watches, it is the same familiar names. Patek Philippe. Audemars Piguet. Rolex. They are still the exception to the rule. Do not expect to get a discount on any of those, not now and not any time soon. The demand is still too strong.
Cartier seems to be growing too, but that is more because of jewellery than their watches. Jewellery always seems to hold up better in tough times. Hermès is another one. They are growing, but again, Hermès has always existed in its own strange orbit.
When you step back and look at the broader luxury groups though, the trend is obvious. Richemont. LVMH. Most of these big groups are seeing declines. Swatch Group is not immune either. China was supposed to be the great saviour but there is still no real sign of recovery there. And until China picks up again, much of the global luxury market remains flat.
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We are also seeing this reflected in how brands are behaving. Luxury marketing has pulled back hard. The big lavish events, the international press trips, the aggressive media spends, all of that is slowing down. They are relying more and more on brand equity, organic awareness, and on existing customer relationships to keep sales moving.
And this is where it gets interesting for the consumer.
When retailers are under pressure, when targets still need to be met, they will do what they have to do. They will find ways to move stock. And for you, as a buyer, that creates an opportunity.
You do need to be realistic. You are not getting a discount on a Rolex Daytona. You are not getting a discount on a Royal Oak. But walk in and ask about something a little less hyped, and you may be pleasantly surprised.
The brands will hate me saying this, but frankly, it is the truth. And everyone is watching their money right now. Fewer orange mocha frappuccinos. Fewer holidays. Less business class.
My advice remains the same as it always has. Stick with authorised dealers. Avoid the grey market. That world is full of snake oil salesmen and flippers trying to make a quick buck. Build proper relationships with authorised retailers. These are the people who will still answer your calls when you need them down the line.
If you have been thinking about buying a luxury watch, I would suggest now is the time to get out there. Shop around. Talk to a few boutiques. See who is willing to play ball. Because while the market may take another twelve months to truly recover, there are opportunities right now for anyone willing to have a quiet conversation.
Stay savvy. That watch you never thought was possible, might just be closer to reality than you think.
